Russia perceives itself as being in a state of conflict with NATO allies. While this hasn’t yet escalated into direct military confrontation, the Kremlin is actively engaging in probing attacks on NATO defenses to assess weaknesses and boundaries. These actions by Russia, occurring outside traditional battle zones, involve sabotage activities such as disrupting railway lines in Poland, targeting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, and launching aggressive campaigns to disrupt NATO supply chains supporting Ukraine.
The primary goals for Russia in these operations are to raise the costs for NATO’s support to Ukraine, create disruptions in supply chains, and sow discord among Western nations. Despite these provocations, Russia has carefully avoided actions that would trigger a military response from NATO. By utilizing third-party proxies, including individuals recruited through social media, Russia maintains a level of deniability and operational flexibility, making it challenging to attribute these attacks directly to the Kremlin.
Although Russia’s sabotage efforts across Europe lack seamless coordination and consistency in targeting, countries like Germany, France, and Poland, which provide substantial military aid to Ukraine, have experienced more frequent attacks compared to the UK. Notably, the UK, despite its significant military and economic assistance to Ukraine, has faced fewer physical assaults. However, as highlighted by Defence Secretary John Healey, this does not diminish Russia’s interest in the UK, as evidenced by continuous surveillance activities, such as the recent presence of the Yantar surveillance vessel in British waters.
Russia’s intelligence networks in Europe suffered setbacks in 2022 when several European countries expelled diplomats believed to be linked to the GRU, disrupting Russia’s operations. Consequently, Russia has been rebuilding these networks but faces challenges in coordinating actions due to the absence of established handlers, relying on local proxies instead. Despite these limitations, Russia is expected to adapt and improve its tactics over time, posing ongoing risks to non-military targets in Europe, including the UK.